气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测

	气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测
其他题名	Prediction on spatial migration of suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis under climate change conditions in Shanxi Province,China
	张殷波 1; 刘彦岚 2; 秦浩 3; 孟庆欣 4
	2019
发表期刊	应用生态学报
ISSN	1001-9332
卷号	30 期号:2 页码:496-502
摘要	The impacts of climate change on biodiversity and its adaptation will directly affect the efficiency of biodiversity conservation. Predicting spatial variation of suitable habitats of threatened species under future climate change has important theoretical and practical significance for biodiversity conservation. In this study,we predicted the suitable distribution of Elaeagnus mollis,an endemic endangered plant in China,under climate change at regional scales. Then,we simulated the spatial variation and migration tend of suitable distribution under different climate change scenarios by spatial analysis. The results from Maxent model showed that the two suitable distribution areas of E. mollis presented different migration trends under the future climate change scenarios: the suitable areas of Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction,while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate to high elevation. Analysis of the spatial pattern change of the suitable areas indicated that the areas with obvious change occurred at the boundary of the suitable areas of E. mollis,including new suitable area and lost suitable area. The new suitable areas were scattered in the marginal of the original,with the increase rate of 9.1% to 20.9%,and the lost suitable areas were concentrated in the northern Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas and the southeast Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas,with the loss rate of 16.4% to 31.1%. These regions were more sensitive to climate change. Using the classification statistical tool of Zonal,we found that the central points of the Lyuliang Mountain suitable areas showed southward migration trend under the future climate change,with the maximum migration distance of 7.451 km,while the center point of the Zhongtiao Mountain suitable areas showed migration trend to the northwest,with the maximum migration distance of 8.284 km. Our results indicated that the response of E. mollis distribution in Shanxi to climate change was intense.
其他摘要	气候变化对生物多样性的影响及其适应性直接关系着生物多样性保护的成效,预测未来气候变化条件下受威胁物种适宜生境的空间变化趋势对生物多样性保护具有重要的理论和实践意义.本文选取我国特有濒危植物翅果油树为研究对象,在区域尺度上预测气候变化条件下的物种适宜分布区,进而通过空间分析模拟不同气候变化情景下其适宜分布区的空间变化和迁移趋势.最大熵( Maxent)物种分布模型预测结果显示:翅果油树的两个适宜分布区在未来气候变化情景下呈现不同的迁移趋势,吕梁山适生区呈现出纬度方向上的轻微波动,而中条山适生区则呈现出向高海拔地区迁移的趋势.适生区空间格局变化分析表明,翅果油树当前适生区的边界存在明显变化区域,包括新增适生区(零星分布在两个适生区的边缘地带,新增率为9.1%~20.9%)和丧失适生区(集中分布在吕梁山适生区北缘和中条山适生区东南部,丧失率为16.4% ~ 31.2%) ,且两者对气候变化的响应较为敏感.利用分类统计工具 Zonal计算得出,在未来气候变化条件下吕梁山适生区的中心点呈现向南迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为7.451 km;中条山适生区的中心点则呈现出向西北迁移的趋势,最大迁移距离为8.284 km.表明山西翅果油树的分布对气候变化的响应较为剧烈.
关键词	翅果油树 Maxent 气候变化空间格局迁移趋势 Elaeagnus mollis Maxent climate change spatial pattern migration tend
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Forestry
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	FORESTRY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6426872
引用统计	被引频次：24[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原, 山西 030006, 中国 2.山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原, 山西 030006, 中国 3.山西财经大学统计学院, 太原, 山西 030006, 中国 4.山西大学环境与资源学院, 太原, 山西 030006, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	张殷波,刘彦岚,秦浩,等. 气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测[J]. 应用生态学报,2019,30(2):496-502.
APA	张殷波,刘彦岚,秦浩,&孟庆欣.(2019).气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测.应用生态学报,30(2),496-502.
MLA	张殷波,et al."气候变化条件下山西翅果油树适宜分布区的空间迁移预测".应用生态学报 30.2(2019):496-502.