基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析

	基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析
其他题名	An analysis of oriented characteristics and influential factors of farmers'adaptation to climate change in 10 representative counties and cities of Hubei Province
	童庆蒙 1; 张露 2; 张俊飚 3
	2019
发表期刊	中国农业大学学报
ISSN	1007-4333
卷号	24 期号:1 页码:194-205
摘要	Based on the field survey of 847 rice farmers from 10 representative counties (cities) including Wuxue and Zhijiang in Hubei Province, this study used the econometrical analytic method of binary probit model to study the oriented characteristics and influential factors of farmers' adaptation to climate change. The conclusions revealed that farmers had the highest proportion of labor-oriented climate change adaptive behavior, which accounted for more than 65% . While the proportion of technology-oriented climate change adaptive behavior was the lowest and was accounting for less than a half. Besides, climate change perception, land renting, gender of the household head, family farming labors, production training and other factors had various and significant impacts on farmers' implementation of different characteristic-oriented climate adaptive behaviors. Among them, as for labor-oriented and technology-oriented adaptive behaviors, farmers who perceived the irregular rainfall had 29.1% and 18.8% of higher probabilities of implementation respectively than who didn't perceive, and those who rented the land had 10.9% and 7.5% of higher probabilities of implementation as to the two adaptation behaviors. Finally, policies and suggestions such as reducing the institutional cost of adapting to climate change and broadening the route of climate information were put forwarded in this study.
其他摘要	利用来自湖北省公安县、枝江市等10个代表地区847个稻农的调研数据,运用Binary probit模型的计量经济分析方法,对农户气候变化适应性行为实施的偏向特征及影响因素展开研究。结论表明:农户实施劳动偏向型气候变化适应性行为的比例最高,且超过65%,而实施技术偏向型气候变化适应性行为比例最低;气候变化感知、土地转入、户主性别、家庭农业劳动力、接受生产培训等因素对农户实施不同要素偏向型的气候适应性行为产生显著影响,其中,感知到降雨越来越不规律的农户比未感知到的农户在实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率上分别高出29.1%和18.8%,发生土地转入的农户实施劳动和技术偏向型气候适应性行为的概率要比未发生土地流转的农户高出10.9%和7.5%。最后提出了降低适应气候的制度成本、拓宽气候信息服务路径等政策建议。
关键词	气候变化适应偏向特征稻农 Binary probit模型 climate change adaptation oriented characteristics rice farmers binary probit model
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Agriculture
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6410756
引用统计	被引频次：4[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.华中农业大学经济管理学院;;湖北省农村发展研究中心, ;;, 武汉;;武汉, ;; 430070;;430070 2.华中农业大学经济管理学院;;湖北省农村发展研究中心, ;;, 武汉;;武汉, ;; 430070;;430070 3.华中农业大学经济管理学院;;湖北省农村发展研究中心, ;;, 武汉;;武汉, ;; 430070;;430070
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	童庆蒙,张露,张俊飚. 基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析[J]. 中国农业大学学报,2019,24(1):194-205.
APA	童庆蒙,张露,&张俊飚.(2019).基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析.中国农业大学学报,24(1),194-205.
MLA	童庆蒙,et al."基于湖北省十个代表县(市)的农户适应气候变化的偏向特征与影响因素分析".中国农业大学学报 24.1(2019):194-205.