19802016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响

	19802016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响
其他题名	Impacts of climate variability on crop yields in Hunan Province during 1980-2016
	冯琳 1; 庞玉亭 2; 钟琪 3; 张斌斌 4; 陈哲祺 5; 王铜 6
	2019
发表期刊	资源科学
ISSN	1007-7588
卷号	41 期号:3 页码:582-590
摘要	Under the background of global climate change, the response of crop production to meteorological conditions and climate variability has attracted widespread attention. Based on the official meteorological and agricultural production data issued by Hunan Province from 1980 to 2016, we analyzed the change characteristics of local climate factors and crop yields, and the influences of climate factors on crop output in high, medium and low production areas with a variety of statistical methods. The results show that: (1) In 1980-2016, annual average temperature in Hunan Province increased significantly at the rate of 0.39/10 a. Annual average precipitation and sunshine hour decreased but not significantly. There were sudden changes in meteorological factors generally. (2) Per unit yields of four major crops all showed upward trend, with the increase rate ranging from high to low: maize(0.122 t/hm~2/a)>soybeans(0.040 t/hm~2/a)>wheat (0.039 t/hm~2/a)> rice(0.028 t/hm~2 /a). Rice had 0 climate good year; wheat 9 climate good years; maize 19 climate good years; and soybeans 11 climate good years. Rice had 1 climate lean year; wheat 5 climate lean years; maize 2 climate lean years; and soybeans 4 climate lean years. (3) Annual average temperature had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice in medium production areas. Annual average precipitation had a significant negative influence on the climate yield of rice and wheat in low production areas. Annual average sunshine hour had a significant positive influence on the climate yield of maize in medium production areas, and rice, wheat and maize in low production areas. Our study suggested that the cropping structure and cropping system could be further optimized in high production area. Meanwhile, improved breeds of rice and wheat resistant to high temperature and waterlogging could be introduced and cultivated in low/medium production areas. Their planting period could also be adjusted appropriately.
其他摘要	全球气候变化背景下,农作物生产对气象条件的响应程度受到普遍关注。本文基于湖南省官方发布的19802016年气象和农业数据,运用多种统计方法,分析了湖南省气候、产量变化特征以及气候因素对高、中、低产区农作物产量的影响。结果表明:①19802016年,湖南省年均气温以0.39℃/10a的速率显著上升,年均降水量和年均日照时数有所减少,但趋势不显著。气温、降水、日照普遍存在突变现象。②4种主要粮食作物的单产均呈上升趋势,上升速率大小顺序为:玉米(0.122 t/hm~2/a)>大豆(0.040 t/hm~2/a)>小麦(0.039 t/hm~2/a)>稻谷(0.028 t/hm~2/a)。稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆分别有0、9、19、11个气候丰年,1、5、2、4个气候歉年。③年均气温对中产区稻谷的气候产量有显著负效应。年均降水量对低产区稻谷、小麦的气候产量有显著负效应。年均日照时数对中产区玉米的气候产量,以及低产区稻谷、小麦、玉米的气候产量均有显著正效应。建议高产区进一步优化农业种植结构和种植制度,中低产区可引进和培育耐高温、耐涝的稻谷、小麦、玉米新品种,并适当调整播期。
关键词	气候变化农业产量多元线性回归湖南省 climatic variability crop yield multiple linear regression Hunan Province
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Agriculture
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6464341
引用统计	被引频次：8[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国 2.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国 3.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国 4.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国 5.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国 6.中国人民大学环境学院, 北京 100872, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	冯琳,庞玉亭,钟琪,等. 19802016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响[J]. 资源科学,2019,41(3):582-590.
APA	冯琳,庞玉亭,钟琪,张斌斌,陈哲祺,&王铜.(2019).19802016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响.资源科学,41(3),582-590.
MLA	冯琳,et al."19802016年气候变化对湖南省农业产量的影响".资源科学 41.3(2019):582-590.