气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例

	气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例
其他题名	The impacts of climate change on hydrologic seasonal shift: taking flood season division and extreme precipitation as examples
	章梦杰 1; 郭家力 2; 林伟 3; 郭靖 4; 舒章康 5; 李英海 6; 张静文 7
	2019
发表期刊	气候变化研究进展
ISSN	1673-1719
卷号	15 期号:2 页码:158-166
摘要	Under the influence of climate change the reliable design and safe operation of hydraulic engineering has become a hot issue for decision makers, researchers and the public. Taking the Qingjiang River Basin as the research target, and using fuzzy set analysis method to classify the daily rainfall data generated under different greenhouse emission scenarios (e.g., A2, A1B and Bl), the extreme precipitation series were simulated by generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) function. The results show that climate change has changed the precipitation structure, and its seasonal shift directly affects the flood season division. Under the three emission scenarios, the main flood season in the future will be postponed and shortened compared with the baseline period. The extreme precipitation in the future (e.g., 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099) is less than the baseline period, and this difference increases with the increase of the return period. The extreme precipitation in the main flood season is notably larger than that in the pre-flood season and post flood season. For extreme precipitation, the differences between periods are remarkably greater than those of emission scenarios.
其他摘要	气候变化影响下水利工程的可靠设计和安全运行是广大决策者、研究者和公众共同关注的热点问题。以清江流域为研究对象,首先采用模糊集合分析法对不同温室气体排放情景(A2、A1B和B1)下的逐日降水资料进行汛期分期,再通过广义极值分布(GEV)函数对各分期的极值降水序列进行频率分析。结果表明,降水季节性迁移直接影响汛期分期;3种排放情景下未来各时段(2011-2030年、2046-2065年和2080-2099年)的主汛期较基准期均推迟且有缩短趋势。对于极值降水量级,未来情景下明显小于基准期,且这种差距随着重现期的增大而增大;主汛期明显大于前汛期和后汛期,且在时段之间的差异明显大于排放情景之间的差异。
关键词	气候变化汛期分期模糊集合季节性迁移广义极值(GEV)分布 Climate change Flood season division Fuzzy set Seasonal shift Generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Science & Technology - Other Topics
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6455130
引用统计	被引频次：1[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国 2.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国 3.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国 4.中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司, 杭州, 浙江 310014, 中国 5.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国 6.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国 7.三峡大学水利与环境学院, 宜昌, 湖北 443002, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	章梦杰,郭家力,林伟,等. 气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展,2019,15(2):158-166.
APA	章梦杰.,郭家力.,林伟.,郭靖.,舒章康.,...&张静文.(2019).气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例.气候变化研究进展,15(2),158-166.
MLA	章梦杰,et al."气候变化对水文季节性迁移的影响:以水库汛期分期和极值降水为例".气候变化研究进展 15.2(2019):158-166.