晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应

	晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应
其他题名	Spatial distribution of crop climatic potential productivity and its response to climate change in agro-pastural ecotone in northern Shanxi Province
	马雅丽 1; 郭建平 2; 赵俊芳 3
	2019
发表期刊	生态学杂志
ISSN	1000-4890
卷号	38 期号:3 页码:818-827
摘要	Based on the daily meteorological data of 19 meteorological stations in agro-pastural ecotone of northern Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2016 and the observational data of five grain crops during growth period from 1981 to 2016,the potential productivity of crops were calculated through a step-by-step correction method. The spatial distributions in climatic potential productivity of five grain crops at different levels were analyzed. The impacts of changes in climatic elements, such as radiation,temperature and precipitation on climatic potential productivity were analyzed by a statistical model based on the propensity to change in potential productivity at all levels. The results showed that the light /temperature potential productivity of maize,millet,sorghum and soybean in the northern Shanxi Province during the period 1961-2016 decreased from the east to the west. The spatial difference of photosynthetic potential productivity of potato was minor. The climate potential productivity of maize,millet and sorghum decreased from the southeast to the northeast. The distribution of climatic potential productivity of potato was higher in the west and the east and lower in the middle. The spatial difference in photosynthetic potential productivity of soybeans was slight. The impact of climate change on the climatic potential productivity differed among crop species. The effects of radiation changes on the climate potential productivity of five crops were negative. The effects of temperature changes on the climatic potential productivity were positive for thermophilic crops ( maize,soybean,millet and sorghum) in most regions,but negative for chimonophilous crops ( potato). Climate warming was beneficial to improving heat shortage in northern Shanxi. Precipitation was the dominant climatic factor affecting the spatial change of climatic potential productivity. Reduced precipitation had a negative effect in the northern part with less precipitation,and no effect in the south part with more precipitation. To adapt to the climate change,it is necessary to strengthen the selection of high photosynthetic efficiency and drought-resistant crop varieties,rationalize planting density,adjust sowing date, optimize agricultural distribution,and promote agricultural rainwater harvesting and agricultural water-saving irrigation technologies in accordance with local conditions,in order to enhance the utilization of agricultural climate resources and promote stable and high yield of food crops.
其他摘要	选取晋北农牧交错带19612016年19个气象站点逐日气象资料以及1981 2016年5种粮食作物发育期观测资料,采用作物生产潜力逐级订正法,分析不同作物各级生产潜力分布特征,并基于各级生产潜力变化倾向率建立统计模型,分析辐射、气温、降水等气候要素变化对气候生产潜力的影响.结果表明: 19612016年,晋北各作物光温生产潜力空间分布特征为:玉米、谷子、高粱和大豆东高西低,马铃薯空间分布差异较小;各作物气候生产潜力空间分布特征为:玉米、谷子和高粱东南高西北低,马铃薯东西高中部低,大豆空间分布差异较小;气候要素变化对不同作物气候生产潜力的影响不同,辐射变化对5种作物气候生产潜力的影响为负效应;气温变化对大部分地区喜温作物(玉米、大豆、谷子和高粱)气候生产潜力的影响为正效应,对喜凉作物马铃薯的影响是负效应,气候变暖对改善晋北地区热量不足有利;降水变化是影响晋北作物气候生产潜力变化出现明显空间差异的主要因素,降水减少对于东北部降水偏少地区的影响为负效应,而对于南部降水较多地区未表现负效应,降水基本满足作物生长需要;为适应当前气候变化,需加强高光合效率和抗旱作物品种的选育,合理密植,调整播期,优化农业布局,因地制宜地推广农业集雨灌溉和农业节水灌溉技术,以提高农业气候资源利用率,促进粮食作物稳产高产.
关键词	作物气候生产潜力气候变化晋北农牧交错带响应 crop climatic potential productivity climate change agro-pastural ecotone in northern Shanxi Province response
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Agriculture
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	AGRICULTURE MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6443702
引用统计	被引频次：8[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.山西省气候中心;;中国气象科学研究院, ;;灾害天气国家重点实验室, 太原;;, ;;北京 030006;;100081 2.中国气象科学研究院;;南京信息工程大学, 灾害天气国家重点实验室;;气象灾害预警预报与评估协同创新中心, ;;南京, 北京;; 100081;;210044, 中国 3.中国气象科学研究院, 灾害天气国家重点实验室, 北京 100081, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	马雅丽,郭建平,赵俊芳. 晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 生态学杂志,2019,38(3):818-827.
APA	马雅丽,郭建平,&赵俊芳.(2019).晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应.生态学杂志,38(3),818-827.
MLA	马雅丽,et al."晋北农牧交错带作物气候生产潜力分布特征及其对气候变化的响应".生态学杂志 38.3(2019):818-827.