基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估

	基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估
其他题名	Long-term Projection of Surface Runoff in the Fu River Basin Based on Water-energy Balance
	袁喆 1; 许继军 2; 王永强 3; 洪晓峰 4; 周彦辰 5; 陈进 6
	2019
发表期刊	工程科学与技术
ISSN	2096-3246
卷号	51 期号:1 页码:60-67
摘要	The projection of surface runoff in the context of climate change is important to the rational utilization and distribution of water resources.This study conducted a case study in Fu River basin.A basin scale hydrological model was built based on macroscale processes of surface runoff and water-energy balance.This model can describe the quantitative relationship among climatic factors,underlying surface and surface runoff.Driven by hypothetical climatic scenarios and climate change dataset provided by CMIP5,the climate change impacts on surface runoff in the Fu River basin can be addressed.The results showed that:1) Compared with other distributed hydrological models,the hydrological model in this study uses fewer parameters and has simpler calculation methods,which was good at simulating annual surface runoff.2) The surface runoff was less sensitivity to climate change in the Fu River basin,i.e.,the increase of only 1 °C in temperature might result in a surface runoff decrease of 3.6% to 6.3% and a 1% precipitation increase might result in a streamflow increase of 1.7% to 1.9%.3) The temperature across the Fu River Basin was projected to increase by 1.1 to 2.6℃ from 2020 to 2050,as compared to that from 1961 to 1990.But the uncertainty existed among the projection results of precipitation.The surface runoff was expected to decrease by 10% to 11% without considering the climate change projected by GFDL-ESM2M,which was much different from those predicted by other GCMs.
其他摘要	预估气候变化背景下流域地表径流的变化是水资源合理开发与利用的前提。以抚河流域为研究区,从地表径流形成的宏观机理出发,基于水热平衡构建可描述大尺度上气候要素、下垫面要素和地表径流3者之间定量关系的流域尺度水文模型。结合假定的气候变化情况和CMIP5气候变化预估成果,评估抚河流域对气候变化的敏感性,并预估2020-2050年期间抚河流域地表径流的变化。结果表明:1)所构建的抚河流域水热平衡模型对年尺度径流模拟效果较好,且模型参数少,计算简单。2)抚河流域对气候变化敏感性相对较低,气温每升高1.0 ℃,地表径流减少3.6%~6.3%;降水每增加1%,地表径流增加1.7%~1.9%。3)未来抚河流域表现出增温的特点,2020-2050年多年平均气温相对于1961-1990年增加1.1~2.6 ℃,多年平均降水量的变化存在较大不确定性。在不考虑与其他模式差别较大的GFDL-ESM2M条件下,未来地表径流将减少10%~11%。
关键词	气候变化地表径流水热平衡抚河流域 climate change surface runoff water-energy Fu River basin
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Engineering
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	ENGINEERING MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6429188
引用统计	被引频次：2[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国 2.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国 3.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国 4.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国 5.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国 6.长江水利委员会长江科学院, 武汉, 湖北 430010, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	袁喆,许继军,王永强,等. 基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估[J]. 工程科学与技术,2019,51(1):60-67.
APA	袁喆,许继军,王永强,洪晓峰,周彦辰,&陈进.(2019).基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估.工程科学与技术,51(1),60-67.
MLA	袁喆,et al."基于水热平衡的抚河流域地表径流长期预估".工程科学与技术 51.1(2019):60-67.