60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布

	60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布
其他题名	Temporal-spatial Distribution of Suitable Areas for Major Food Crops in China Over 60 Years
	宁晓菊 1; 张丽君 2; 秦耀辰 3; 刘凯 4
	2019
发表期刊	地球科学进展
ISSN	1001-8166
卷号	34 期号:2 页码:191-201
摘要	Simulating the temporal-spatial distribution of areas suitable for crops is an important part of analyzing the effects of climate change on crop growth,reducing the vulnerability of crop growth,and assessing the adaptability of crop growth to climate change.This study selected climate factors that affect the growth of wheat,maize and rice,and it combined surface soil and ground elevation factors as environment variables,as well as data from agricultural observation stations as species variables.The MaxEnt ecological model was used to identify suitable areas for these three crops during the period of 1953-2012.The areas suitable for the three crops were analyzed to determine the temporal-spatial distribution of major food crops and to estimate the difference in crop growth adaptability under climate change.The results showed the following:① The response to climate change of the areas suitable for food crops could be ranked from strongest to weakest as follows:wheat,rice,and maize.② On the same space-time scale,for the growth of wheat and rice,the southern agricultural regions,mountainous areas and plateaus were relatively unsuitable for a wider variety of crops than the northern agricultural regions,plains and basins.③ The adaptability of wheat increased in the major agricultural regions slightly.The adaptability of maize increased in the northern agricultural regions and decreased in the southern agricultural regions,respectively.The adaptability of rice was stable in the southern agricultural regions,and it decreased in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and increased in the northeastern region.④ Over 60 years,the ability of the major food crops to adapt to climate change increased in the northeast region,Gansu-Xinjiang region,Southwest region and Loess Plateau region,but the adaptability of major food crops decreased in the Huang- Huai-Hai region and the Mid-and-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.⑤ The suitable areas of maize and rice were significantly correlated with planting areas and yields,respectively,which provided feasibility for simulating the distribution of suitable areas on maize and rice in different climate scenarios in the future.The suitable area of wheat is not significantly related to the planting area and yield.In the future,we will take more factors to model the suitable area of wheat accurately.
其他摘要	模拟作物适宜生长区的时空分布是分析气候变化对作物生长影响、提高作物生长适应能力的重要内容。选择影响主要粮食作物(小麦、玉米和水稻)生长的气候要素,结合地表土壤和地面高程要素与农业观测站数据,模拟和分析1953-2012年主要粮食作物适宜生长区的变动,评估气候变化下作物的适应能力。研究发现:①60年来3种粮食作物适宜生长区对气候变化响应程度从大到小依次是小麦、水稻和玉米。②同一时空尺度上,主要粮食作物适宜生长类型区在南方农区较北方农区多样化,在山地较盆地多样化,在高原较平原多样化。③小麦生长适应气候变化的能力在多数农区略有上升。玉米生长的适应能力在北方和南方农区分别略微提高和下降。水稻生长的适应能力在长江中下游区、西南区和华南区相对稳定,在黄淮海区和东北区分别下降和提高。④60年来,主要粮食作物综合生长适应气候变化的能力在黄淮海区和长江中下游区下降,在其余农区升高。⑤玉米和水稻适宜生长区分别与播种面积和作物产量显著相关,这为模拟未来不同气候情景下二者适宜生长区的分布提供了可行性。小麦适宜生长区与播种面积和产量均不显著相关,未来需要考虑更多因素精准识别小麦适宜生长区,以便更为有效地提高小麦生长对气候变化的适应能力。
关键词	适宜生长区适宜等级适应能力气候变化粮食作物 Suitable area Crop adaptability Suitability level Climate change Major food crops
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Geology
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	GEOSCIENCES MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6462886
引用统计	被引频次：3[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.河南财经政法大学;;河南大学环境与规划学院, 城乡协调河南省协同创新中心;;, 郑州;;开封, 河南;;河南 475000;;475004, 中国 2.河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封, 河南 475004, 中国 3.河南大学环境与规划学院, 开封, 河南 475004, 中国 4.河南财经政法大学, 城乡协调河南省协同创新中心, 郑州, 河南 475000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	宁晓菊,张丽君,秦耀辰,等. 60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布[J]. 地球科学进展,2019,34(2):191-201.
APA	宁晓菊,张丽君,秦耀辰,&刘凯.(2019).60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布.地球科学进展,34(2),191-201.
MLA	宁晓菊,et al."60年来我国主要粮食作物适宜生长区的时空分布".地球科学进展 34.2(2019):191-201.