气候变化背景下辽宁省未来气象干旱危险性风险评估

	气候变化背景下辽宁省未来气象干旱危险性风险评估
其他题名	The future meteorological drought hazard risk assessment in Liaoning Province under the background of climate change
	卢晓昱 1; 任传友 2; 王艳华 3
	2019
发表期刊	自然灾害学报
ISSN	1004-4574
卷号	28 期号:1 页码:65-75
摘要	Using the 27 model current data in 1 990 s and the future meteorological data under the scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the Fifth Coupled Mode International Comparison Program CMIP5 and the observed data to evaluate the model performance for simulating the meteorological elements. The results show that CanESM2,CNRM-CM5,MIROC5 and MRI-CGCM3 models have the best simulation performance for precipitation. Using the data of the above four climate models,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index ( SPEI), which is an index describing the intensity of drought risk,was calculated. Based on the information diffusion theory, the surpassing probability in different drought levels was estimated. On this basis,the analysis of the future climate change characteristics of multi-models under different typical concentration paths ( RCPs) was analyzed. The results show that the change of light drought risk in the future is most significant compared to the 1 990 s( P < 0.05). The areas with the highest increase rates of droughts surpassing probability are located in the western and southern around Bohai Sea regions. The west of Liaohe River Basin is a moderately and severely high-risk region. The sub-high value regions are located in the southern part of Liaoning Province,including the Bohai Sea region; The degree of in the north is great,and the law of change over time under different future scenarios are different; risk variation in the eastern and central regions are relatively stable under each scenario,which perform ultra-low and low and low and medium risks respectively.
其他摘要	利用第5次耦合模式国际比较计划CMIP5中的27个模式历史1 990 s数据、RCP2.6, RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的未来气象数据以及观测数据评估模型模拟气象要素性能。结果表明, CanESM2,CNRM-CM5,MIROC5以及MRI-CGCM3模式模拟降水性能最好。用上述4个气候模式的数据计算描述干旱危险性强度的指标标准化降水蒸散指数( SPEI),基于信息扩散理论得到未来不同干旱等级的超越概率。在此基础上着重分析了多模式在不同典型浓度路径( RCPs)下对未来气候变化特征的预估。结果表明:未来时段较1 990 s的轻旱危险性风险变化最显著( P < 0.05) 。各个干旱等级的超越概率增加率最大的地区位于西部以及南部环渤海地区。辽河流域西部是中度及重度危险性高值区,次高值区位于辽宁省南部地区包括环渤海地区;北部危险性变异程度较大,在不同未来情景下随时间表现的规律不同;东部及中部地区在各个情景下均较稳定,分别被超低和低以及低和中风险覆盖。
关键词	CMIP5模式性能干旱危险性信息扩散理论风险评估 CMIP5 model performance drought risk information diffusion theory risk assessment
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	METEOROLOGY ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6458144
引用统计	被引频次：3[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.沈阳农业大学农学院大气科学系, 沈阳, 辽宁 110866, 中国 2.沈阳农业大学农学院大气科学系, 沈阳, 辽宁 110866, 中国 3.沈阳农业大学农学院大气科学系, 沈阳, 辽宁 110866, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	卢晓昱,任传友,王艳华. 气候变化背景下辽宁省未来气象干旱危险性风险评估[J]. 自然灾害学报,2019,28(1):65-75.
APA	卢晓昱,任传友,&王艳华.(2019).气候变化背景下辽宁省未来气象干旱危险性风险评估.自然灾害学报,28(1),65-75.
MLA	卢晓昱,et al."气候变化背景下辽宁省未来气象干旱危险性风险评估".自然灾害学报 28.1(2019):65-75.