新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测

	新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测
其他题名	Prediction of the potential distribution and ecological suitability of Fritillaria walujewii
	魏博 1; 马松梅 2; 宋佳 3; 贺凌云 4; 李晓辰 5
	2019
发表期刊	生态学报
ISSN	1000-0933
卷号	39 期号:1 页码:228-234
摘要	Based on 62 natural distribution points and 15 environmental factors, we analyzed and predicted the potentially suitable areas, driving factors, and ecological niche parameters determining the distribution of Fritillaria walujewii under the reference climate of 1961-1990 and under the predicted climate of 2050 (2041-2060). We based our predictions on RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 scenarios using ArcGIS and the maximum entropy (MAXENT) model. The major results were as follows: (1) under the reference climate,the potentially suitable areas for F. walujewii were mainly restricted to the Altai region, western and southern Junggar Basin, southwestern Alashankou, southern Ili River Valley, and western Turpan Basin. Specifically, the most suitable areas were concentrated in southwestern Junggar Basin, Tacheng, and the middle and southern Ili River Valley; (2) the potential distribution of F. walujewii in 2050,based on two climate scenarios and compared with the reference climate, will possibly decrease by about 0.94% and 0.23%. The new potential habitats would mainly distributed in the western Junggar Basin. However, the most suitable distributions for F. walujewii are predicted to become slightly smaller (by about 0.42% and 0.39%) in the middle and southern Ili River Valley and Tacheng; (3) annual precipitation, precipitation in the driest month, mean temperature in the driest quarter, and altitude were the main limiting factors affecting distribution of F. walujewii; the total cumulative contribution of these factors was 88.58%. Ecological niche parameters that determine the most suitable areas under the reference climate were: an annual precipitation of 248-469 mm, precipitation in the driest month of 3-19 mm, mean temperature in the driest quarter of -22.7 to -2.0℃,and altitude of 1350-2100 m.
其他摘要	基于新疆贝母的62个自然分布点和15个环境因子,利用ArcGIS软件和最大熵模型(MAXENT),预测、分析了该植物在基准气候1961-1990及2050 (2041-2060,基于RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景)条件下的潜在适生区、驱动因子及其生态位参数。结果表明:(1)基准气候下,新疆贝母的适生区主要集中在阿勒泰地区、准噶尔盆地西部、南部、阿拉山口西南部、伊犁河谷南部及吐鲁番盆地西部地区。其中,最适宜的分布主要集中在准噶尔盆地西南部、塔城地区和伊犁河谷中部和南部;(2)新疆贝母在2050时段气候情境下的潜在分布范围与基准气候相比,将分别增加0.94%和0.23%,新增的潜在生境主要分布在准噶尔盆地西部。但最适生的分布区将在伊犁河谷中部、南部及塔城地区略有减少(0.42%和0.39%);(3)年平均降水量、最干月降水量、最干季平均气温和海拔主要限制了新疆贝母的潜在分布,累积贡献率之和达88.58%;基准气候下该植物最适宜分布区的生态位参数为:年平均降水量248-469 mm,最干月降水量3-19 mm,最干季平均气温-22.7--2.0℃,海拔1350-2100 m。
关键词	气候变化新疆贝母适宜分布驱动因子生态位参数 climate change Fritillaria walujewii suitable distribution driving factors ecological niche parameters
收录类别	CSCD
语种	中文
WOS关键词	Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology
WOS类目	BIOLOGY
CSCD记录号	CSCD:6409765
引用统计	被引频次：8[CSCD] [CSCD记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	任务一_子任务一循证社会科学证据集成任务一
作者单位	1.石河子大学生命科学学院, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国 2.石河子大学理学院, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国 3.石河子大学理学院, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国 4.石河子大学理学院, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国 5.石河子大学理学院, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	魏博,马松梅,宋佳,等. 新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测[J]. 生态学报,2019,39(1):228-234.
APA	魏博,马松梅,宋佳,贺凌云,&李晓辰.(2019).新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测.生态学报,39(1),228-234.
MLA	魏博,et al."新疆贝母潜在分布区域及生态适宜性预测".生态学报 39.1(2019):228-234.