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| Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil | |
| Pequeno, Pedro1; Bosholn, Mariane1; Barbosa, Reinaldo1; Mendel, Bruna2; Rosa, Clarissa1; Magnusson, William1; Souza, Jorge Luiz3; Baccaro, Fabricio4 | |
| 2020-05 | |
| 发表期刊 | PEERJ
 |
| ISSN | 2167-8359 |
| 摘要 | There is evidence that COVID-19, the disease caused by the betacoronavirus SARS-CoV-2, is sensitive to environmental conditions. However, such conditions often correlate with demographic and socioeconomic factors at larger spatial extents, which could confound this inference. We evaluated the effect of meteorological conditions (temperature, solar radiation, air humidity and precipitation) on 292 daily records of cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases across the 27 Brazilian capital cities during the 1st month of the outbreak, while controlling for an indicator of the number of tests, the number of arriving flights, population density, proportion of elderly people and average income. Apart from increasing with time, the number of confirmed cases was mainly related to the number of arriving flights and population density, increasing with both factors. However, after accounting for these effects, the disease was shown to be temperature sensitive: there were more cases in colder cities and days, and cases accumulated faster at lower temperatures. Our best estimate indicates that a 1 degrees C increase in temperature has been associated with a decrease in confirmed cases of 8%. The quality of the data and unknowns limit the analysis, but the study reveals an urgent need to understand more about the environmental sensitivity of the disease to predict demands on health services in different regions and seasons. |
| 关键词 | Climate Coronavirus Health Pandemic |
| DOI | 10.7717/peerj.9322 |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 出版者 | PEERJ INC |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Inst Nacl de Pesquisas da Amazonia; 2.Univ Fed Roraima; 3.Inst Nacl Mata Atlantica; 4.Univ Fed Amazonas |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pequeno, Pedro,Bosholn, Mariane,Barbosa, Reinaldo,et al. Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil[J]. PEERJ,2020. |
| APA | Pequeno, Pedro.,Bosholn, Mariane.,Barbosa, Reinaldo.,Mendel, Bruna.,Rosa, Clarissa.,...&Baccaro, Fabricio.(2020).Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil.PEERJ. |
| MLA | Pequeno, Pedro,et al."Air transportation, population density and temperature predict the spread of COVID-19 in Brazil".PEERJ (2020). |
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| Pequeno-2020-Air tra（4734KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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