Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu

doi:10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0

	Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu
	Guo, Xiao-Jing; Zhang, Hui; Zeng, Yi-Ping
	2020-06
发表期刊	INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY
ISSN	2095-5162
EISSN	2049-9957
摘要	Background The new coronavirus disease COVID-19 began in December 2019 and has spread rapidly by human-to-human transmission. This study evaluated the transmissibility of the infectious disease and analyzed its association with temperature and humidity to study the propagation pattern of COVID-19. Methods In this study, we revised the reported data in Wuhan based on several assumptions to estimate the actual number of confirmed cases considering that perhaps not all cases could be detected and reported in the complex situation there. Then we used the equation derived from the Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to calculateR(0)from January 24, 2020 to February 13, 2020 in 11 major cities in China for comparison. With the calculation results, we conducted correlation analysis and regression analysis betweenR(0)and temperature and humidity for four major cities in China to see the association between the transmissibility of COVID-19 and the weather variables. Results It was estimated that the cumulative number of confirmed cases had exceeded 45 000 by February 13, 2020 in Wuhan. The averageR(0)in Wuhan was 2.7, significantly higher than those in other cities ranging from 1.8 to 2.4. The inflection points in the cities outside Hubei Province were between January 30, 2020 and February 3, 2020, while there had not been an obvious downward trend ofR(0)in Wuhan.R(0)negatively correlated with both temperature and humidity, which was significant at the 0.01 level. Conclusions The transmissibility of COVID-19 was strong and importance should be attached to the intervention of its transmission especially in Wuhan. According to the correlation betweenR(0)and weather, the spread of disease will be suppressed as the weather warms.
关键词	COVID-19 Transmissibility Basic reproduction number Temperature Humidity
DOI	10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
WOS关键词	OUTDOOR TEMPERATURE ; RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; INFLUENZA ; OUTBREAK ; SURVIVAL ; INDOOR ; SHAPE
WOS研究方向	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
WOS类目	Infectious Diseases ; Parasitology ; Tropical Medicine
出版者	BMC
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	新冠肺炎循证社会科学证据集成
作者单位	Tsinghua Univ
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Xiao-Jing,Zhang, Hui,Zeng, Yi-Ping. Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu[J]. INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY,2020.
APA	Guo, Xiao-Jing,Zhang, Hui,&Zeng, Yi-Ping.(2020).Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu.INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY.
MLA	Guo, Xiao-Jing,et al."Transmissibility of COVID-19 in 11 major cities in China and its association with temperature and humidity in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Chengdu".INFECTIOUS DISEASES OF POVERTY (2020).

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