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| Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics | |
| Demongeot, Jacques1; Seligmann, Herve1,3; Flet-Berliac, Yannis2 | |
| 2020-04 | |
| 发表期刊 | BIOLOGY-BASEL
 |
| EISSN | 2079-7737 |
| 摘要 | (1) Background: The virulence of coronavirus diseases due to viruses like SARS-CoV or MERS-CoV decreases in humid and hot weather. The putative temperature dependence of infectivity by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 or covid-19 has a high predictive medical interest. (2) Methods: External temperature and new covid-19 cases in 21 countries and in the French administrative regions were collected from public data. Associations between epidemiological parameters of the new case dynamics and temperature were examined using an ARIMA model. (3) Results: We show that, in the first stages of the epidemic, the velocity of contagion decreases with country- or region-wise temperature. (4) Conclusions: Results indicate that high temperatures diminish initial contagion rates, but seasonal temperature effects at later stages of the epidemy remain questionable. Confinement policies and other eviction rules should account for climatological heterogeneities, in order to adapt the public health decisions to possible geographic or seasonal gradients. |
| 关键词 | covid-19 temperature sensitivity weather-dependent virulence heat inhibition |
| DOI | 10.3390/biology9050094 |
| WOS关键词 | SENSITIVITY ; CORONAVIRUS |
| WOS研究方向 | Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Biology |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes; 2.Univ Lille; 3.Hebrew Univ Jerusalem |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Demongeot, Jacques,Seligmann, Herve,Flet-Berliac, Yannis. Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics[J]. BIOLOGY-BASEL,2020. |
| APA | Demongeot, Jacques,Seligmann, Herve,&Flet-Berliac, Yannis.(2020).Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics.BIOLOGY-BASEL. |
| MLA | Demongeot, Jacques,et al."Temperature Decreases Spread Parameters of the New Covid-19 Case Dynamics".BIOLOGY-BASEL (2020). |
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| Demongeot-2020-Tempe（1545KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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