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| Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections | |
| Pacheco Coelho, Marco Tulio1; Mota Rodrigues, Joao Fabricio1; Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre1; Medina, Anderson Matos2; Vilela, Bruno2; Dobrovolski, Ricardo2; Scalco, Paulo1; Terribile, Levi Carina3 | |
| 2020-06 | |
| 发表期刊 | PEERJ
 |
| ISSN | 2167-8359 |
| 摘要 | The pandemic state of COVID-19 caused by the SARS CoV-2 put the world in quarantine, led to hundreds of thousands of deaths and is causing an unprecedented economic crisis. However, COVID-19 is spreading in different rates at different countries. Here, we tested the effect of three classes of predictors, i.e., socioeconomic, climatic and transport, on the rate of daily increase of COVID-19 on its exponential phase. We found that population size and global connections, represented by countries' importance in the global air transportation network, are the main explanations for the early growth rate of COVID-19 in different countries. Climate and socioeconomics had no significant effect in this big picture analysis. Our results indicate that the current claims that the growth rate of COVID-19 may be lower in warmer and humid countries should be taken very carefully, risking to disturb well-established and effective policy of social isolation that may help to avoid higher mortality rates due to the collapse of national health systems. |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 SARS CoV-2 Exponential growth rates Network centrality Spatial analysis Socioeconomics |
| DOI | 10.7717/peerj.9708 |
| WOS关键词 | HEALTH ; TEMPERATURE ; HUMIDITY |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 出版者 | PEERJ INC |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Fed Goias; 2.Univ Fed Bahia; 3.Univ Fed Jatai |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Pacheco Coelho, Marco Tulio,Mota Rodrigues, Joao Fabricio,Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre,et al. Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections[J]. PEERJ,2020. |
| APA | Pacheco Coelho, Marco Tulio.,Mota Rodrigues, Joao Fabricio.,Felizola Diniz-Filho, Jose Alexandre.,Medina, Anderson Matos.,Vilela, Bruno.,...&Terribile, Levi Carina.(2020).Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections.PEERJ. |
| MLA | Pacheco Coelho, Marco Tulio,et al."Global expansion of COVID-19 pandemic is driven by population size and airport connections".PEERJ (2020). |
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| Coelho-2020-Global e（3161KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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