Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the US

doi:10.1007/s00477-020-01835-8

	Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the US
	Chien, Lung-Chang; Chen, Lung-Wen
	2020-07
发表期刊	STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT
ISSN	1436-3240
EISSN	1436-3259
摘要	Since the World Health Organization has declared the current outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) a global pandemic, some have been anticipating that the mitigation could happen in the summer like seasonal influenza, while medical solutions are still in a slow progress. Experimental studies have revealed a few evidences that coronavirus decayed quickly under the exposure of heat and humidity. This study aims to carry out an epidemiological investigation to establish the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 in high risk areas of the United States (U.S.). We analyzed daily new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and seven meteorological measures in top 50 U.S. counties with the most accumulative confirmed cases from March 22, 2020 to April 22, 2020. Our analyses indicate that each meteorological factor and COVID-19 more likely have a nonlinear association rather than a linear association over the wide ranges of temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation observed. Average temperature, minimum relative humidity, and precipitation were better predictors to address the meteorological impact on COVID-19. By including all the three meteorological factors in the same model with their lagged effects up to 3 days, the overall impact of the average temperature on COVID-19 was found to peak at 68.45 degrees F and decrease at higher degrees, though the overall relative risk percentage (RR %) reduction did not become significantly negative up to 85 degrees F. There was a generally downward trend of RR % with the increase of minimum relative humidity; nonetheless, the trend reversed when the minimum relative humidity exceeded 91.42%. The overall RR % of COVID-19 climbed to the highest level of 232.07% (95% confidence interval = 199.77, 267.85) with 1.60 inches of precipitation, and then started to decrease. When precipitation exceeded 1.85 inches, its impact on COVID-19 became significantly negative. Our findings alert people to better have self-protection during the pandemic rather than expecting that the natural environment can curb coronavirus for human beings.
关键词	COVID-19 Temperature Relative humidity Precipitation
DOI	10.1007/s00477-020-01835-8
WOS关键词	OUTBREAK
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Mathematics ; Water Resources
WOS类目	Engineering, Environmental ; Engineering, Civil ; Environmental Sciences ; Statistics & Probability ; Water Resources
出版者	SPRINGER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	新冠肺炎循证社会科学证据集成
作者单位	Univ Nevada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chien, Lung-Chang,Chen, Lung-Wen. Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the US[J]. STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT,2020.
APA	Chien, Lung-Chang,&Chen, Lung-Wen.(2020).Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the US.STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT.
MLA	Chien, Lung-Chang,et al."Meteorological impacts on the incidence of COVID-19 in the US".STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT (2020).

条目包含的文件		下载所有文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
Chien-2020-Meteorolo（807KB）	期刊论文	出版稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览下载