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| COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate | |
| Rouen, A.1; Rogers, E.1; Adda, J.2; Roy, O.3; Levy, P.4 | |
| 2020-08 | |
| 发表期刊 | EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION
 |
| ISSN | 0950-2688 |
| EISSN | 1469-4409 |
| 摘要 | Purpose: The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures: Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Main findings: There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principal conclusions: The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come. |
| 关键词 | Atmospheric temperature COVID-19 seasonality |
| DOI | 10.1017/S0950268820001831 |
| WOS关键词 | ENVIRONMENTAL-FACTORS ; RESPIRATORY VIRUS ; VIBRIO-CHOLERAE ; INFLUENZA ; TRANSMISSION ; TIME |
| WOS研究方向 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases |
| WOS类目 | Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Infectious Diseases |
| 出版者 | CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Hop Armand Trousseau; 2.CHU Montpellier; 3.Synlab Paris; 4.Sorbonne Univ |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rouen, A.,Rogers, E.,Adda, J.,et al. COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate[J]. EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION,2020. |
| APA | Rouen, A.,Rogers, E.,Adda, J.,Roy, O.,&Levy, P..(2020).COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate.EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION. |
| MLA | Rouen, A.,et al."COVID-19: relationship between atmospheric temperature and daily new cases growth rate".EPIDEMIOLOGY AND INFECTION (2020). |
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