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| A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China | |
| Lin, Changqing1; Lau, Alexis K. H.1; Fung, Jimmy C. H.1; Chan, Jimmy W. M.1; Yeung, David W.1; Zhang, Yumiao1; Hossain, Md Shakhaoat1; Guo, Cui2; Bo, Yacong2; Zeng, Yiqian2; Lao, Xiang Qian2 | |
| 2020-06 | |
| 发表期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
 |
| ISSN | 0048-9697 |
| EISSN | 1879-1026 |
| 摘要 | The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), which first emerged in Hubei province, China, has become a pandemic. However, data regarding the effects of meteorological factors on its transmission are limited and inconsistent. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme was developed to investigate the association between the scaled transmission rate (STR) of COVID-19 and the meteorological parameters in 20 provinces/municipalities located on the plains in China. We obtained information on the scale of population migrated from Wuhan, the world epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak, into the study provinces/municipalities using mobile-phone positioning system and big data techniques. The highest STRs were found in densely populated metropolitan areas and in cold provinces located in north-eastern China. Population density had a non-linear relationship with disease spread (linearity index, 0.9). Among various meteorological factors, only temperature was significantly associated with the STR after controlling for the effect of population density. A negative and exponential relationship was identified between the transmission rate and the temperature (correlation coefficient, -0.56; 99% confidence level). The STR increased substantially as the temperature in north-eastem China decreased below 0 degrees C (the STR ranged from 35 to 12.3 when the temperature was between -9.41 degrees C and -13.87 degrees C), whilst the STR showed less temperature dependence in the study areas with temperate weather conditions (the STR was 1.21 +/- 0.57 when the temperature was above 0 degrees C). Therefore, a higher population density was linearly whereas a lower temperature (<0 degrees C) was exponentially associated with an increased transmission rate of COVID-19. These findings suggest that the mitigation of COVID-19 spread in densely populated and/or cold regions will be a great challenge. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 Meteorology Temperature Imported scale Population density |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140348 |
| WOS关键词 | TEMPERATURE ; WEATHER |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Hong Kong Univ Sci & Technol; 2.Chinese Univ Hong Kong |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lin, Changqing,Lau, Alexis K. H.,Fung, Jimmy C. H.,et al. A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020. |
| APA | Lin, Changqing.,Lau, Alexis K. H..,Fung, Jimmy C. H..,Chan, Jimmy W. M..,Yeung, David W..,...&Lao, Xiang Qian.(2020).A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT. |
| MLA | Lin, Changqing,et al."A mechanism-based parameterisation scheme to investigate the association between transmission rate of COVID-19 and meteorological factors on plains in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2020). |
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| A mechanism-based pa（1005KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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