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| Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China | |
Shi, Peng1; Zhao, Chenkai1; Li, Xiaoyang1; Liu, Wei1 ; He, Miao1; Xi, Shuhua1; Dong, Yinqiao1; Yan, Huanchang2; Tang, Shixing2
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| 2020-04 | |
| 发表期刊 | SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
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| ISSN | 0048-9697 |
| EISSN | 1879-1026 |
| 摘要 | A COVID-19 outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China at the end of 2019 and developed into a global pandemic during March 2020. The effects of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in China are unknown. Data on COVID-19 daily confirmed cases and daily mean temperatures were collected from 31 provincial-level regions in mainland China between Jan. 20 and Feb. 29, 2020. Locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplot (LOESS), distributed lag nonlinear models (DLNMs), and random-effects meta-analysis were used to examine the relationship between daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 and temperature conditions. The daily number of new cases peaked on Feb. 12, and then decreased. The daily confirmed cases rate of COVID-19 had a biphasic relationship with temperature (with a peak at 10 degrees C), and the daily incidence of COVID-19 decreased at values below and above these values. The overall epidemic intensity of COVID-19 reduced slightly following days with higher temperatures with a relative risk (RR) was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). A random-effect meta-analysis including 28 provinces in mainland China, we confirmed the statistically significant association between temperature and RR during the study period (Coefficient = -0.0100, 95% CI: -0.0125, -0.0074). The DLNMs in Hubei Province (outside of Wuhan) and Wuhan showed similar patterns of temperature. Additionally, a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (M-SEIR) model, with adjustment for climatic factors, was used to provide a complete characterization of the impact of climate on the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic. |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 Temperature Dynamic transmission model |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138890 |
| WOS关键词 | DISEASE ; TRANSMISSION |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences |
| 出版者 | ELSEVIER |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.China Med Univ; 2.Southern Med Univ |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Shi, Peng,Zhao, Chenkai,Li, Xiaoyang,et al. Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020. |
| APA | Shi, Peng.,Zhao, Chenkai.,Li, Xiaoyang.,Liu, Wei.,He, Miao.,...&Tang, Shixing.(2020).Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT. |
| MLA | Shi, Peng,et al."Impact of temperature on the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2020). |
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| Impact of temperatur（2615KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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