Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138201

	Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China
	Xie, Jingui 1,2; Zhu, Yongjian 1
	2020-03
发表期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
摘要	Background Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become a severe public health problem globally. Both epidemiological and laboratory studies have shown that ambient temperature could affect the transmission and survival of coronaviruses. This study aimed to determine whether the temperature is an essential factor in the infection caused by this novel coronavirus. Methods Daily confirmed cases and meteorological factors in 122 cities were collected between January 23, 2020, to February 29, 2020. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to explore the nonlinear relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases. We also used a piecewise linear regression to determine the relationship in detail. Results The exposure-response curves suggested that the relationship between mean temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases was approximately linear in the range of <3 degrees C and became flat above 3 degrees C. When mean temperature (lag014) was below 3 degrees C, each 1 degrees C rise was associated with a 4.861% (95% CI: 3.209-6.513) increase in the daily number of COVID-19 confirmed cases. These findings were robust in our sensitivity analyses. Conclusions Our results indicate that mean temperature has a positive linear relationship with the number of COVID-19 cases with a threshold of 3 degrees C. There is no evidence supporting that case counts of COVID-19 could decline when the weather becomes warmer, which provides useful implications for policymakers and the public.
关键词	Temperature Novel coronavirus pneumonia COVID-19 China Generalized additive model
DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138201
WOS关键词	RELATIVE-HUMIDITY ; AIR-POLLUTION ; TIME-SERIES ; MORTALITY ; WEATHER ; WUHAN
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
出版者	ELSEVIER
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
专题	新冠肺炎循证社会科学证据集成
作者单位	1.Univ Sci & Technol China; 2.Brunel Univ London
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xie, Jingui,Zhu, Yongjian. Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China[J]. SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,2020.
APA	Xie, Jingui,&Zhu, Yongjian.(2020).Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT.
MLA	Xie, Jingui,et al."Association between ambient temperature and COVID-19 infection in 122 cities from China".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT (2020).

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