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| Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan | |
| Rashed, Essam A.1,2; Kodera, Sachiko1; Gomez-Tames, Jose1; Hirata, Akimasa1 | |
| 2020-07 | |
| 发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH
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| EISSN | 1660-4601 |
| 摘要 | This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor, affecting the spread and decay patterns, withR(2)= 0.39 (p< 0.05) and 0.42 (p< 0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R-2> 0.36,p< 0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjustedR(2)= 0.53,p-value < 0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak. |
| 关键词 | COVID-19 temperature absolute humidity population density spread and decay durations |
| DOI | 10.3390/ijerph17155354 |
| WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health |
| 出版者 | MDPI |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Nagoya Inst Technol; 2.Suez Canal Univ |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Rashed, Essam A.,Kodera, Sachiko,Gomez-Tames, Jose,et al. Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH,2020. |
| APA | Rashed, Essam A.,Kodera, Sachiko,Gomez-Tames, Jose,&Hirata, Akimasa.(2020).Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH. |
| MLA | Rashed, Essam A.,et al."Influence of Absolute Humidity, Temperature and Population Density on COVID-19 Spread and Decay Durations: Multi-Prefecture Study in Japan".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH (2020). |
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| Rashed-2020-Influenc（3341KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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