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| Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions | |
| Kubota, Yasuhiro1,2; Shiono, Takayuki1; Fujinuma, Junichi1; Kusumoto, Buntarou1 | |
| 2020-09 | |
| 发表期刊 | PLOS ONE
 |
| ISSN | 1932-6203 |
| 摘要 | Following its initial appearance in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread around the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and percentage of the population aged over 65 years), and human mobility (relative amounts of international visitors) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 case numbers across 1,020 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift that occurred from December 2019 to June 30, 2020 in multiple drivers of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Our regression model adequately explains the cumulative COVID-19 case numbers (per 1 million population). As the COVID-19 spread progressed, the explanatory power (R-2) of the model increased, reaching > 70% in April 2020. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility to COVID-19 largely explained the variance among COVID-19 case numbers across locations; the relative importance of host mobility and that of host susceptibility to COVID-19 were both greater than that of climate. Notably, the relative importance of these factors changed over time; the number of days from outbreak onset drove COVID-19 spread in the early stage, then human mobility accelerated the pandemic, and lastly climate (temperature) propelled the phase following disease expansion. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility. The identification of these multiple drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak trajectory, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19, will contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and inform long-term preventative measures against this disease. |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pone.0239385 |
| WOS关键词 | BIOGEOGRAPHY ; DYNAMICS |
| WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics |
| WOS类目 | Multidisciplinary Sciences |
| 出版者 | PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 专题 | 新冠肺炎 循证社会科学证据集成 |
| 作者单位 | 1.Univ Ryukyus; 2.Think Nat Inc |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Kubota, Yasuhiro,Shiono, Takayuki,Fujinuma, Junichi,et al. Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions[J]. PLOS ONE,2020. |
| APA | Kubota, Yasuhiro,Shiono, Takayuki,Fujinuma, Junichi,&Kusumoto, Buntarou.(2020).Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions.PLOS ONE. |
| MLA | Kubota, Yasuhiro,et al."Multiple drivers of the COVID-19 spread: The roles of climate, international mobility, and region-specific conditions".PLOS ONE (2020). |
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| Kubota-2020-Multiple（3453KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 开放获取 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 下载 | |
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